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http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/2015/05/13/climate-deal-will-prove-all-are-on-board
IN PARIS in December, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP-21) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will adopt a new agreement - the first of its kind and applicable to all - with the aim of keeping the average world temperature rise to less than 2°C. It will also try to facilitate lower greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation by all countries to the adverse effects of climate change.
SA hosted COP-17 in 2011, when the Durban Platform - the process for negotiating this agreement - was launched. The success of COP-21 will therefore also be SA's.
The stakes, for SA as for any other country, are much higher than a political success in Paris. Climate change is real and its effects are felt throughout the world: changing rainfall patterns, more frequent and extreme weather events, and melting Arctic ice are some of the most visible. They can lead to economic and social disruptions and force people to move away from areas where life has become too hard.
SA is already acting to curb its emissions by deploying renewable energy and reducing the share of coal, and adaptation plans are being developed, including within local governments, to manage the effects and start to shape more resilient infrastructures and production systems, which will need less energy and less water in the future.
The new climate deal to be struck in Paris will not solve things overnight, of course, but it will send an important signal, showing that all governments have agreed to act on climate change and have given themselves a clear direction towards a carbon-free economy. It will give a sense of certainty, or inevitability, to all stakeholders, that investing patterns must now start to shift.
In substance, the agreement will be about defining how countries will commit to curb emissions, adapt and co-operate. It will build upon nationally determined contributions, which have already been published by about 30 countries - including those in the EU and the US - representing more than 25% of worldwide emissions, and China has already announced how it will contribute.
Now, it is unlikely that this bottom-up process of national contributions will add up to put the world on track to the 2°C limit. This is why the French presidency of COP-21 is not only urging all countries to set ambitious targets for themselves, but is also designing a conference in Paris that will look for ways to bridge this gap. First, the agreement itself needs to be set in the long term and provide for a regular cycle of commitment, for example every five years, to allow countries to take account of new policy or technology development and raise their targets.
Second, in Paris, we need a clear sense that finance is flowing, which is an important request on the part of developing countries. However, what is at stake is not only public finance, which will never be able to match the magnitude of investments needed to fight climate change, but also, and probably most of all, private investment, which must shift to invest the trillions that are needed to achieve a low-carbon society.
Third, because the agreement is about long-term commitment by governments, we will also need to see immediate action on the ground by all stakeholders, showcasing solutions in all sectors. This is a pledge made by Peru and France in Lima last December, to carry on the "Action Agenda" launched earlier by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and to ask for international co-operation in initiatives, joined also by "nonstate actors" such as local governments, private business or nongovernmental organisations, to come together in Paris and report on their commitments and results, in areas such as energy, energy efficiency, transport, sustainable cities, forests, agriculture and water.
All in all, the success of the Paris Alliance will be about an agreement, of course, but also about the solutions to reach our commitments, and the means to implement them.
