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Climate change, the greatest global challenge, is already a reality for the farmers of Rajasthan. It is increasing the pressure on already scarce resources and if proper measures are not taken, migration towards the cities will soon reach new heights.
According to the Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change (RAPCC) report by the Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board prepared with the help of a multi-disciplinary team of experts from TERI with support from GIZ says, 'enough is already known to start action'. And more than the factual situation the action plan that the report suggests is a writing on the wall for farmers.
Any change in climatic determinants could not only adversely impact food security and nutrition but also affect the well-being of the population that derives its income from the sector. Agriculture and allied sectors, therefore, exhibit high sensitivity to climate fluctuations. The way ahead is, "Breeding of climate-hardy livestock and development of nutritional strategies to prevent heat stress and productivity loss; Dairying of goats and other small ruminants should be promoted; indigenous varieties with heat resistance capacities could be identified and promoted to minimize related losses in milk production."
"We have left no stone unturned to prepare the RAPCC report. The data is based on 20,000 research papers published since 1850. Given the rising temperature and shifting monsoon trend, malaria window in Rajasthan can certainly increase. Enough is already known to start action. The RAPCC is based on current state of knowledge and warrants action," said D N Pandey, member secretary, Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board.
"Given the fragility of the resource base in much of Rajasthan, agriculture is a high risk activity. Climate change poses formidable challenges to the animal husbandry sector as well. Rajasthan is the second highest producer of milk in the country (amounting to nearly 17 lakh kg per day). But the current annual loss in milk production due to heat stress in Rajasthan is 98.65, 40.55 and 29.74 litres per animal per year in crossbred cows, local cows and buffaloes respectively," states the report.
It is projected in a range of studies that climate change will lead to a decrease in crop and animal produce especially in tropical countries like India, aggravating the risk of hunger, malnutrition and poverty, as the availability of food and opportunities for livelihood across sectors will get affected. On the flip side, it would affect the demand and corresponding changes in crop prices. "The harvest prices of foodgrains, pulses, vegetables and spices have constantly been on the rise. Yield-temperature response curves show that there is a decrease in grain yield of wheat in Rajasthan at the rate of 2.49 quintals per hectare per degree rise in seasonal temperature, 0.92 quintals per hectare decrease in yield of mustard," reads the report.
Shifting cropping patterns to more heat adapted and less water consuming varieties is a strategy already practiced by farmers. Reports indicate a shift in cropping patterns to local varieties of pulses, green gram, millets and mustard, which need less water.
Besides, Rajasthan has a livestock population of about 49.1 million and ranks among the top three states for having the highest livestock population. Though contribution of animal husbandry to the state GDP is about 9.16%, it is also one of the biggest methane emitters contributing almost 9.1% to the total methane emissions in the country.
Studies show an increase in the population of buffaloes 1998 onwards. Also, the number of goats and sheep has grown significantly in the past 50 years. And steep rise in goat and sheep numbers may be attributed to the poor availability of fodder to sustain buffalo/cattle.
"And although they significantly contribute to the improvement of dairy farmers' economy, unsatisfactory nutritional status and lack of knowledge of balanced feeding and lack of proper marketing facilities for animal products like goat and camel milk, meat and wool in addition to scarcity of fodder are aspects that may lead to an unsustainable future," reads the report.
Apart from that livestock is a major source of methane emission. Rajasthan has the second largest population of livestock, nearly 49.136 million. Rajasthan contributed 9.1% of India's total livestock emissions. The spatial analysis in GIS has identified a few districts like Udaipur and Jaipur, with total methane emissions above 0.05 Tg. With a livestock population of 49.14 million in Rajasthan, emissions from enteric fermentation account for .98 (Tg) and manure management account for .09 (Tg).
Though the vulnerability of farm animals to climate change varies with their genetic composition, type and breed, life stage and nutritional status, studies indicate that the performance of farm animals is affected by climate. Heat stress in dairy animals is likely to impact their productive and reproductive functions, cautions the report.
