http://www.rtcc.org/2013/07/23/un-climate-change-deal-may-not-be-feasible-by-2015/

 

The world's leading economies have indicated 2015 may be too early for countries to agree on mitigation targets under a UN treaty.

 

Paris has been earmarked as the venue for a global climate change treaty to be agreed in just over two years time. This agreement would come into force by 2020.

Scientists say emissions need to peak this decade to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.

But a recent Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) meeting in Poland involving the USA, EU, China and the UN ended with a Chair's Summary acknowledging that "some considered it would not be feasible to complete the process by 2015."

The statement added that certain countries do consider this "feasible and important", and that there is wider support for commitments to be discussed ahead of the Paris summit.

There is no mention of flows of climate finance, which will disappoint many developing countries, but there is a commitment to explore ways of cutting pollution ahead of 2020, including increasing investment in the energy efficiency of buildings.

Climate policy analysts have told RTCC it is significant that 2015 is now being discussed as the start not the end of a pledging process.

"The statement that 2015 might launch a process rather than formalise some 2020 pledges is something that is not currently part of the expectations and discussion within UNFCCC," said Oxfam Climate Change Policy Adviser Tracey Carty.

"Some governments might be thinking about this but it seems at odds with current expectations, and we do need more information on that.

"Just in terms of the substance, I think it would be a concern to launch a process in Paris because the world does need to see a shift in climate ambition and certainty in climate action."

Major economies of the world can, must make political space to help world tackle #climate challenge in time http://t.co/TfJtnVjmIp

- Christiana Figueres (@CFigueres) July 23, 2013

 

The 2012 emission gap report by the UN Environment Programme revealed current emission reduction pledges are well short of what is required to avoid two degrees of warming, a level that scientists say could cause dangerous levels of climate change.

Further discussion on mitigation commitments are expected to take place at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September, and at the main UN climate summit in Warsaw this November.

"If we do not get the underlying frameworks in place I doubt whether countries will be politically ready to put forward mitigation targets," said WWF International Climate Policy Advocate Tasneem Essop.

"It's essential in the next two years they start unpacking things like equity reference frameworks and the science review process so that when they do put numbers on the table we know that they are fair and ambitious.

"If they could spend the next two years sorting that out and reaching strong agreements on that by 2015 at least, there's nothing to stop them from looking at the numbers."

While the MEF involves only a small number of countries, members like China, the USA and the EU are hugely influential in the international climate policy arena.

The statement does seem to indicate that any global emissions treaty may not be one encompassing document as envisaged pre-Copenhagen.

It also suggests the legal aspects of any treaty are likely to be fluid, noting that not everything agreed in 2015 will need to be based under a legal umbrella.

"As NGOs we would have wanted a top-down legally binding agreement, but the political space for that might not be there, and I think quite a few negotiators and even NGOs are looking at other options, like hybrid models of bindingness," said Essop.

"You could have a strong agreement that all countries have strong domestically binding legislation where the targets would be legally binding at a domestic level. That takes you away from the kind of voluntary pledge and review regime at least."